The Federal Reserve has considerable work to do.
But it’s not going to do it in October
That’s the key finding in CNBC’s latest Fed Survey of 30 fund managers, strategists and economists, which showed that 93% expect a pause at the Fed meeting taking place this week and 76% anticipate a rate hike at its next meeting in December. And more than half say the Fed will hike next year by an average of about two rate hikes. “Their hesitancy to raise rates is unfathomable after an extended period of monetary and fiscal generosity, with nominal GDP running 6-8%, and when the leading indicators of inflation are uniformly warm to hot,” said Richard Bernstein, global head of macro investing at Janus Henderson Investors. A plurality of 40% say the Fed must slow growth below potential to solve the inflation problem.
That compares with 27% who say the Fed does not need to slow the economy and 23% who say the Fed has to slow the economy only somewhat. The survey, which CNBC conducts before every Fed meeting, found that 70% see the inflation problem as broader than just the rising price of energy. The U.S. crude oil benchmark is forecast to be at $88 a barrel six months from now, up from $82 in the September survey, but below the current level of $101.