The near flat August reading gives the RBNZ little fresh signal either way ahead of its September 2 Monetary Policy Statement, where economists are broadly split between a hold and a further 25 basis point hike to 2.75%.
Household inflation expectations held at 4.7%, still elevated relative to target and unlikely on its own to sway the Committee
The softer current conditions index points to lingering strain from earlier oil price shocks, even as the five year outlook hit its best level since May 2021, suggesting households see current pressures as temporary rather than structural. — New Zealand households are still cautious but increasingly optimistic about the years ahead, a steadier backdrop for the RBNZ as it weighs a hold or hike on September 2. Summary: ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eased 1 point in August to 98.0, still below par but 18 points above its April low. Two-year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 4.7%; house price inflation expectations eased from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Current conditions eased from 88.5 to 83.4, while future conditions rose to 107.7, and the 5-year outlook hit its best reading since May 2021. The RBNZ’s September 2 Monetary Policy Statement follows a July hike to 2.50% New Zealand consumer confidence eased marginally in August, holding below the neutral 100 mark but well clear of its April low, as households continue working through the aftermath of an oil price shock even as longer term optimism improves. The data lands days before the Reserve Bank’s September 2 Monetary Policy Statement, where the Committee faces a genuinely contested choice between holding the Official Cash Rate and hiking further.