The Federal Reserve’s cryptic chairman is set to deliver his much-awaited keynote address Friday in Jackson Hole, with markets trying to anticipate what, if anything, he will have to say on key matters affecting the economy and monetary policy.
Kevin Warsh will speak during the Fed’s annual symposium in Wyoming, an event this year that is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Prior Fed chairs have used the speech as an opportunity to discuss broad policy frameworks and intentions on where they see policy and interest rates headed, beyond the main focus of the conference
But given his approach so far since taking the reins in May, a time during which Warsh has placed a far greater emphasis on market direction than cues from the Fed, it’s hard to know what to expect. “People keep asking me what I’m expecting, and I’m not really expecting much of anything. I think it’s hard to predict what he’s going to say,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors. “If I had to guess, I would say that he’s going to give a very high-level, broad look at the work of the task forces and how he thinks the Fed should operate, as opposed to a nuts-and-bolts assessment of the economy and expectations for policy.” Warsh has set up five task forces aimed at taking what he calls a “first principles” look at Fed functions. Among their tasks are an assessment of how policymakers view inflation, the balance sheet, the data points that influence decisions, communication strategies and communications.
On the final point, Warsh has taken a unique approach compared to his recent predecessors: Rather than seeking to steer reaction through carefully placed signals, he has preferred a more hands-off approach that lets markets interpret data and send signals to the Fed. It’s a strategy that has met with mixed reviews so far and could generate adverse reaction. “I would appreciate some more detail on how he personally thinks…