Six of seven major banks now expect at least one RBA rate increase, with timing split between September and November meetings.
Most major banks have shifted to predict at least one Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike by year-end, citing persistent inflation pressures. Commonwealth Bank of Australia joined the consensus, forecasting a 25 basis point increase to 4.60% in November, though a September move remains possible.
The debate now centers on timing rather than direction, with markets closely watching upcoming data, including August labor figures and GDP. The August CPI print on September 30 and September data on October 28 will be critical in determining whether the RBA acts sooner or waits.
Westpac remains the sole outlier, still expecting no change, leaving room for further shifts in consensus based on incoming data. The outlook keeps upward pressure on short-term bond yields and the Australian dollar ahead of the September 28-29 meeting.