Commerzbank forecasts the Swiss Franc to remain under pressure until 2027 due to subdued inflation and widening ECB-SNB rate differentials.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is expected to stay weak through 2026 as markets adjust expectations for Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate hikes. Analysts cite subdued Swiss inflation, limited SNB intervention capacity, and widening rate differentials with the European Central Bank (ECB) as key factors.
Current market pricing still anticipates an SNB rate hike by mid-2027, despite reports suggesting rates may remain unchanged until the end of that year. Inflation trends and ECB policy moves, including a potential September rate hike, are likely to pressure the Franc further.
A recovery is projected for 2027, with EUR/CHF stabilizing near 0.94 in the third quarter. The SNB’s limited ability to counter Franc appreciation in the medium term may support this rebound.