Trimmed mean inflation near 3.5% will drive RBA policy expectations and AUD moves, analysts say.
Australia’s July consumer price index is forecast to ease to 3.2-3.3% year-on-year from June’s 3.8%, driven by a 1.3% price rise dropping out of the annual calculation. The decline reflects base effects rather than underlying disinflation, limiting its market impact.
Traders will focus on the trimmed mean, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure, expected to hold near 3.5%. A print at or below consensus could reinforce bets on an RBA hold in September, while a hotter reading may revive tightening speculation. Major banks forecast the headline at 3.2-3.3%, with the lower end marking the softest rate since August 2025.
FX desks have flagged the release as the week’s key domestic catalyst, with AUD crosses poised for the sharpest reaction to any core inflation surprise. The data will be released at 11:30am AEST.