Societe Generale analysts highlight that the Korean Won (KRW) has gained 12% versus the Dollar year-to-date, with USD/KRW falling from around 1560 in June to below 1380.
They argue the move looks stretched but is supported by AI and semiconductor optimism and large buyback-related Dollar selling, keeping USD/KRW a tactical sell on rallies with additional support from expected month-end exporter flows
Tactical sell on rallies “The KRW was one of the key beneficiaries in Asia of the “sell USD” theme post Liberation Day tariffs in 2Q25 when markets aggressively repriced US exceptionalism and USD/KRW retreated to 1350.” “In Asia, the KRW continues to lead performance among major Asian currencies, climbing 12% vs USD on a spot basis YTD.” “The move in USD/KRW from around 1560 in early June to below 1380 appears stretched but illustrates enthusiasm surrounding the AI and semiconductor sectors.” “Following the SK Hynix ADR-related dollar inflows in July, fresh support has emerged via sizeable buyback announcements from Samsung ($80bn) and SK Hynix ($28bn), with associated won conversion flows potentially generating additional dollar selling.” “USD/KRW remains a tactical sell on rallies in our view, boosted by anticipated month-end exporter dollar sales.” Author