The bank raises targets for key crops through 2027, citing severe weather risks from a strengthening El Niño event.
Citi increased its price forecasts for corn, soybeans, and wheat due to growing concerns over a powerful El Niño disrupting agricultural production. The bank now expects tighter supplies and higher prices as weather risks intensify into early 2027.
The revised targets include three-month corn at $5.40 per bushel and 12-month at $5.90. Soybeans were raised to $12.75 for three months and $13.25 for 12 months, while wheat targets now stand at $7.25 and $7.75, respectively. The adjustments follow NOAA’s August 2026 update, which predicts a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño.
Citi’s new Production-at-Risk framework suggests markets may underestimate potential production losses from extreme weather conditions.