Traders on prediction platforms remain divided over Bitcoin’s trajectory despite its sharpest rally in five months.
Bitcoin climbed 3.26% to $71,556 on Thursday, extending a Wednesday surge of 8.7%—its strongest one-day gain since March 4. The rally marks the cryptocurrency’s highest price since June 1, breaking a months-long bearish trend and pushing past key resistance levels near $70,000.
Prediction markets, which convert crowd sentiment into live odds, show near-even splits on Bitcoin’s next move. On Myriad, a market run by Decrypt’s parent company, traders shifted from a 70% probability of a drop to $55,000 days ago to a 52-48 split favoring an $84,000 rally. Other platforms reflect similar skepticism: Polymarket priced a 56% chance of BTC hitting $55,000 by year-end, while Kalshi gave only a 54% shot at clearing $67,500 in August.
The rally has already surpassed thresholds once deemed unlikely, including $70,000, which Kalshi traders assigned a 31% probability. A separate Polymarket contract placed a 47% chance of Bitcoin exceeding $75,000 in August, with roughly $12 million in bets backing the outcome.