Ryan McKay and Bart Melek at TD Securities say Gold and broader precious metals are likely to remain comfortable in a higher trading range.
While systematic and ETF inflows have slowed and rates ticked up, Treasury support for the long end and a Fed tolerant of higher energy costs underpin near-term Gold
However, further upside may wait on clearer Fed-on-hold conviction. Precious metals consolidate elevated band “While the barrage of recent flows from systematic funds, macro discretionary funds, Asian speculators, and ETFs has notably slowed, and interest rates have moved higher again after yesterday’s liquidity measures, gold and precious metals are likely to find comfort in this higher range.” “The signal of the Treasury looking to support the longer end, alongside a Fed willing to look past higher energy prices, should be enough to support the yellow metal in the near-term.” “However, with the market still pricing in hikes for 2027, the next leg higher for gold is unlikely to materialize before the broader market becomes more convinced that the Fed remains on hold.” Author