Doubled buybacks in 10-30 year Treasuries ease upward pressure on yields but stop short of reversing the trend, ING analysis shows.
The US Treasury’s decision to double buybacks in 10-30 year maturities has tempered upward pressure on long-end yields, pushing 10-30-year yields down 5-10 basis points initially. The move signals discomfort with recent sell-offs in longer-dated securities but focuses on liquidity rather than yield suppression.
Buybacks, introduced in May 2024 to improve market liquidity, were expanded amid concerns over rising yields. While the program’s size could grow further, analysts expect it to mute—not eliminate—upward momentum. The 10-year yield remains at risk of testing 4.75% but faces resistance above 5%.
Markets interpret the buybacks as a cap on long-term yields, though upward pressure persists. The Treasury’s flexibility to increase purchases again reinforces this dynamic, keeping yields range-bound for now.