On-chain data shows Bitcoin remains under $68,500 and $75,800 thresholds, with metrics still in capitulation territory.
Bitcoin’s recent rebounds are classified as local rallies rather than a trend reversal, as the cryptocurrency stays below critical on-chain levels. The $68,500 short-term holder cost basis and $75,800 true market mean remain unbreached, with models indicating continued capitulation conditions.
Relative unrealized loss peaked at 25%, far below the 60% seen in prior cycles, while the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio sits at 0.75. Historically, seller exhaustion occurs below 0.5, suggesting further downside risk. Futures demand has improved, and ETF flows are stable, but the negative Coinbase Premium signals weak U.S. spot demand.
Analysts say a sustained recovery requires easing yields and a profit/loss ratio nearing 2. Until then, rallies are likely short-lived.