Quick Read – Toney’s 25x revenue multiple tops NVDA’s 22x and MSFT’s 11x price-to-sales ratios, yet both trade at those levels with strong profitability Anthropic lacks. – Toney himself warned that open-source models and orchestration platforms routing tasks across…
terchangeable models will compress frontier AI margins after listing. – A $2 trillion valuation for a private artificial intelligence company sounds designed to end conversations rather than start them. On CNBC this afternoon, Lo Toney, founding managing partner at Plexo Capital, argued the opposite
If you accept a certain revenue run rate at listing and apply a multiple borrowed from the public AI cohort, the figure lands where the framework says it should. Toney disclosed on air that his firm holds Anthropic from the Series D that closed in January of 2024 at an $18 billion valuation, so he is speaking about a position he owns. That disclosure does not disqualify the argument, but the argument has to survive on its own terms, because a valuation multiple is only as defensible as the revenue it multiplies and the durability of the margins behind that revenue.
Anthropic is not listed; its shares are not available to ordinary investors today, and the October timing Toney referenced is an expectation described in the segment rather than a scheduled event. The Framework Toney Laid Out The mechanics are simple. Toney said that “when you start to apply these multiples to Anthropic… you can come down to a multiple anywhere, you know, call it about 25x.