Analysts forecast copper surpluses by 2027 due to softer demand and normalized trade flows, easing current tightness.
Copper prices near $14,000 per ton are driven by speculative positioning, tariff arbitrage, and supply disruption headlines rather than a genuine global shortage. These factors have masked weakening industrial demand, analysts said.
Recent strength reflects U.S. tariff-related inventory reshuffling and temporary disruptions, such as the DRC’s ban on concentrate exports. However, expectations of softer demand and returning mine capacity are set to erode tightness in the market.
Projections indicate emerging surpluses through 2027, pulling prices below current elevated levels as fundamentals improve and trade flows normalize.