Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility exceeds realized volatility by two-thirds, signaling trader bets on a near-term price surge.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility stands at 36.35%, nearly 67% above its realized volatility of 21.80%. The gap, near a one-year high, suggests traders are pricing in a potential breakout despite the cryptocurrency’s recent range-bound trading.
Realized volatility, reflecting Bitcoin’s price movements over the past four weeks, has fallen to its lowest level since October 2025. However, implied volatility, a forward-looking measure, remains elevated, indicating expectations for sharper price swings ahead.
The disparity favors options sellers, as premiums stay high even in a calm market. Traders may see this as an opportunity to hedge or profit from an anticipated volatility spike, which often follows prolonged periods of low movement.