TD Securities forecasts July Canadian inflation at 2.9% year-on-year, with core at 1.85%, amid risks from potential US tariffs.
TD Securities expects Canada’s July headline CPI to rise 2.9% year-on-year, with core inflation at 1.85%. Retail sales are projected to remain flat for the period. The forecasts come as markets monitor potential US Section 338 tariffs on Canadian exports, adding near-term risk to the CAD.
Prior June CPI data showed a 2.7% annual increase, while core inflation stood at 1.9%. Consensus estimates for July had centered around a slight uptick in headline inflation, though risks remain tilted by trade policy developments.
The Canadian dollar’s trajectory may hinge on both inflation data and US trade actions, with TD highlighting these as key drivers for near-term volatility.