The firm slashed its estimate from 75% in May, citing unresolved political hurdles and limited Senate session days.
Galaxy Digital reduced its probability of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing in 2026 to 10%, down from 75% in May. The firm cited unresolved political issues and only 14 Senate session days remaining after the chamber reconvenes on September 14.
The bill requires immediate procedural votes to advance, with Galaxy’s head of research noting it would need to dominate the Senate’s working session. Failure to pass could prompt the SEC and CFTC to impose their own crypto market regulations. The SEC canceled a planned meeting to unveil new rules amid White House concerns over political fallout.
A White House meeting with SEC Chair Paul Atkins, President Trump, and crypto industry leaders, including Nasdaq and Coinbase, is scheduled for Wednesday to discuss the legislation.