High U.S. Treasury yields may undermine bitcoin’s appeal, challenging aggressive price forecasts like $1.3 million by 2034.
Bitcoin’s $1 million price targets appear overly optimistic as rising U.S. Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Analysts argue that high yields make bitcoin less attractive compared to risk-free returns, despite bullish forecasts from firms like Bitwise projecting $1.3 million within a decade.
The assumption driving these predictions—capital rotation from gold or institutional adoption—ignores the impact of elevated Treasury yields. Bitcoin’s price relative to the 30-year Treasury yield failed to reach new highs in 2025, breaking below a multi-year support line and forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern.
Proponents, including Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong and Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood, have long touted similar projections. However, the current macro environment suggests these targets may require reassessment as traditional finance’s risk-free rate reshapes asset preferences.