Standard Chartered strategists have raised its FY27 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation forecast to 4.9% from 4.5%, citing higher food and retail fuel prices.
They now expect broader price pressures, excluding Gold and Silver, with food and beverage CPI seen at 6.3%
Quarterly CPI projections for FY27 have also been revised higher on food-price risks. Higher food and fuel lift CPI outlook “We raise our FY27 CPI forecast to 4.9% from 4.5%, reflecting higher food and beverage inflation and higher fuel inflation; we remove our assumed c.2% retail fuel-price cut in September.” “Price pressures likely to rise across the board, barring gold and silver.” “Our quarterly CPI forecasts now stand at 4.8% (prev: 4.3%) for Q2-FY27, 5.8% (prev: 5.1%) for Q3-FY27 and 5.3% (prev: 4.9%) for Q4-FY27, driven by revisions to food prices.” “We expect MPC to maintain the status quo in FY27; risk of 50bps+ hike remains if food prices rise further.” “The revision to our FY27 core CPI forecast is marginal, however, as the upward pressure from removing our assumed September retail fuel-price cut has been partly offset by lower gold prices so far.” Author