Diverging IEA and OPEC forecasts for 2026 highlight rising deficit risks as Middle East tensions and inventory builds create volatility.
Oil prices remained largely unchanged as US-Iran negotiations stalled and Russian port infrastructure avoided major damage from drone attacks. Brent crude closed flat despite geopolitical tensions, reflecting mixed market sentiment.
US crude inventories surged by 17.42m barrels last week, the largest increase since January 2023. Including Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, total stocks rose by 11.31 million barrels, adding bearish pressure.
The International Energy Agency projects a 1.8m barrel-per-day deficit in Q3 2026, widening due to Middle East disruptions. Global supply grew by 2.4m b/d in July but remains 6.3m b/d below year-ago levels, underscoring persistent supply concerns.