Markets expect a rebound in July CPI after June’s 0.4% decline, with 67% pricing a rise of at least 0.1%.
US consumer price index data for July will be released at 12:30 UTC, following June’s unexpected 0.4% decline. Prediction markets indicate a 67% chance of a rebound, with at least a 0.1% increase expected.
June’s 0.4% drop marked the first negative print since May 2020, contrasting with economist forecasts of a 0.1% rise. Consensus for July centers on a modest recovery, though 27% of traders anticipate no change and 6% foresee another decline.
The outcome may influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, with markets closely monitoring inflation trends ahead of potential rate adjustments.