The bank expects lower real yields and a softer dollar to support gold demand amid steady Fed policy through 2026.
UBS advised clients to view pullbacks in gold prices, particularly near $4,000 an ounce, as entry points rather than caution signals. The bank’s outlook hinges on a Federal Reserve rate path that holds steady through 2026 before easing in 2027, which would reduce real yields and weaken the dollar—historically bullish conditions for gold.
The call aligns with UBS’s view that inflation will moderate gradually, allowing the Fed to avoid further hikes. Central bank demand, less sensitive to rate cycles, provides additional support, offsetting potential softness in private investment or jewelry consumption.
While near-term dollar strength may limit immediate upside, UBS maintains a constructive medium-term stance, citing structural and cyclical drivers for gold’s resilience.