Persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive EIA to raise oil price forecasts for Q3 due to prolonged supply constraints.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects 600,000 barrels per day of Middle East oil production to remain offline through the end of 2027. The forecast stems from extended closures in the Strait of Hormuz amid renewed regional tensions since late July, which have severely restricted oil traffic this month.
The EIA revised its third-quarter oil price outlook higher, citing reduced supply as a key factor. Prior projections had not accounted for such prolonged disruptions, though geopolitical risks in the region have historically impacted global oil flows.
Markets have already reacted to supply concerns, with crude prices edging upward in recent sessions as traders adjust to the revised outlook.