TD Securities forecasts UK Q2 GDP at 0.4% q/q but warns strength may be temporary, projecting flat growth in H2 2026.
UK June GDP is expected to show no growth month-over-month, with a 0.0% print, as a reversal in professional services offsets solid retail sales. Industrial production weakness also contributes to the flat reading, matching market expectations but below May’s 0.1% gain.
Despite the muted June data, Q2 GDP growth is projected at a firm 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with market forecasts and the Bank of England’s 0.3% estimate. However, TD Securities cautions this strength may be artificial, signaling potential stagnation in the second half of 2026.
The firm’s strategists note May’s professional services surge was an outlier, and its reversal in June leaves the Index of Services flat, reinforcing the subdued outlook for the latter half of next year.