ING analysts suggest weaker-than-expected US inflation could lift the euro toward last week’s peak against the dollar.
EUR/USD has struggled to gain traction despite stronger Eurozone economic data, weighed down by elevated European natural gas prices above €60/MWh and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf. Recent reports indicate diplomatic efforts involving Pakistan and Oman may ease US-Iran tensions, but uncertainty persists.
A softer US CPI print could propel the pair toward last week’s high of 1.1580, though further upside may be limited ahead of additional inflation and jobs data, as well as the Jackson Hole symposium before the Fed’s September policy decision. Market positioning suggests only modest near-term moves are priced in.