Traders await August CPI figures to gauge Fed rate hike odds, with Core CPI M/M consensus at 0.2% for September decision.
The Nasdaq’s recent rally has paused as investors await today’s US CPI report, a key input for the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Core CPI month-over-month is expected at 0.2%, with a higher-than-expected print likely to revive rate hike bets and pressure equities.
Earlier this week, softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls briefly lowered September rate hike probabilities to 38%, but odds rebounded to 50% after unemployment fell to 4.1%. The labor market remains resilient, complicating Fed policy signals ahead of Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
Technical resistance at 30,065 has capped Nasdaq gains, with sellers defending the level. A dovish CPI outcome could fuel a breakout, while a hot report may trigger a pullback as traders adjust Fed tightening expectations.