The Conference Board’s index signals labor market resilience despite modest payroll growth expectations ahead.
The US Employment Trends Index climbed to 107.71 in July from a revised 106.74 in June, rebounding after two months of declines. The increase suggests underlying labor market strength, though growth remains modest compared to a year ago.
The index, a composite of eight labor market indicators, had flagged weakness last month, aligning with softer non-farm payrolls data. Six components contributed positively in July, including job openings and initial unemployment claims, while two weighed on the index.
Despite the rebound, the index is only 0.6% higher than its July 2023 level, indicating potential for subdued payroll growth in coming months. Special factors, such as seasonal education worker cuts, have added volatility to hiring trends this year.