July US jobs data fell 23K versus an expected 80K gain, cooling Fed rate hike bets and pressuring the USD Index to mid-June lows.
The US Dollar held steady early Monday after a sharp post-NFP selloff, following weaker-than-expected July jobs data. Nonfarm payrolls declined by 23K, missing forecasts of an 80K increase and revising June’s gain down to 20K from 57K. The USD Index dropped to near 99.40, its lowest since mid-June.
Markets reacted swiftly, paring back expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Analysts noted the data pulled down real-rate expectations, extending the Dollar’s decline and supporting risk assets. Prior to the release, consensus had leaned toward a 50% chance of a hike, now seen as less likely.
Strategists highlighted the report’s impact on front-end rate expectations, with the soft labor signal reshaping market dynamics. The Dollar’s pause suggests traders are reassessing positions amid shifting Fed policy bets.