TD Securities forecasts July employment growth of 20k and a 0.1pp drop in unemployment, reinforcing CAD strength against USD.
Canada’s July jobs report is expected to show employment rising by 20k, matching market consensus and extending recent labor market recovery. The unemployment rate is projected to fall 0.1 percentage point to 6.4%, below the 6.5% consensus estimate.
Hiring intentions have improved into the third quarter, with the S&P Composite Employment indicator reaching its highest level since late 2024. Wage growth is anticipated to slow to 3.4% year-on-year due to base effects from July 2025.
The report’s resilience may support the Canadian dollar, particularly against the USD, as labor market strength persists despite softer wage growth.