July nonfarm payrolls data may signal modest labor market recovery after June’s weak 57K gain, shaping Fed rate cut expectations.
The US Labor Department will release July nonfarm payrolls data at 12:30 GMT Friday, with economists forecasting an 80K increase after June’s disappointing 57K gain. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings growth remains steady at 3.5% year-over-year.
Deutsche Bank projects a 65K rise in payrolls, slightly above June’s 57K, with private payrolls also seen increasing by 65K following a 49K gain. Analysts warn the unemployment rate could round up to 4.3% if labor force participation rebounds. Wage growth is forecast to hold at 0.3% month-over-month.
Markets view the report as critical for assessing the Fed’s policy path amid cooling inflation pressures, with potential implications for USD valuation and September rate cut bets.