Economists forecast a modest 80K jobs gain in July, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and wage growth unchanged.
US non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 80K in July, down from prior gains but within a consensus range of 10K to 140K. Private payrolls are projected at 78K, while the unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%.
June’s payrolls grew by 206K, but recent indicators suggest cooling. ADP reported 44K jobs added, below the 65K estimate, and ISM services employment hit a four-month low. Wage growth is expected to remain steady at 3.5% year-over-year.
Markets are pricing in a 59% chance of a September Fed rate hike, with a strong jobs report potentially boosting those odds. USD/JPY volatility may limit trading reactions.