The 2026 Iran war and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz was yet another harsh wake-up call to the entire world about the dangers of foreign reliance for energy supplies.
Yet throughout the height of the crisis, China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, appeared relatively immune to the blow
Has the Asian powerhouse truly reached a level of unmatched energy resilience, or were the cracks inevitably about to show like the rest of the world? In this episode, we break down China’s management of recent oil flow disruptions and its march towards energy independence. Joining us to share their insights are Rory Green, head of emerging markets research at TS Lombard (TSL) and author of TSL’s recent report ‘Is China immune to energy shocks?’, and Erica Downs, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, who specialises in Chinese energy markets and geopolitics. https://open.
China’s resilience to energy shocks and remaining risks In his recent report, Green argues that Beijing has spent well over a decade preparing for a moment like this – a major disruption in global oil flow. He explains: “There are four main buffers that China has built up, some deliberately, others less so… the stockpile of commodities, the huge capacity in petrochemicals, low inflation, and the big electrification and energy build-out. Those four combined make China very resilient to this energy shock.” Downs frames these moves as part of a long-standing national ambition to become an “energy powerhouse”, which involves not only increasing the share of non-fossil energy in the mix but also being able to independently manufacture various energy technologies. “The conflict in the Gulf has simply underscored that the best way to ensure China’s energy security is to source as much energy as it can from home,” she comments. “That means using more renewable energy because China is limited in its oil and natural gas resources.