Bank raises RBI FX inflow forecast to $87bn but cites IPO-related outflows capping sharp rupee gains.
MUFG forecasts USD/INR will decline to 94.00 over the next 3–6 months before rising to 96.00 in 2025. The projection reflects stronger Dollar inflows from RBI measures, now estimated at $87bn, up from $60bn previously.
The bank notes IPO-related FDI outflows will offset some inflows, limiting scope for significant rupee appreciation. Most inflows are expected in the September quarter, tempering near-term volatility.
Sharp INR strength remains unlikely despite the revised inflow forecast, according to the bank’s analysis.