Euro consolidates in a 1.15–1.16 range as 2-year US-Germany spreads and sentiment support its recovery since early Q3.
The Euro remains steady near 1.15 against the US Dollar, trading close to fair value based on 2-year spreads between the US and Germany. Strategists note fundamentals and sentiment have been constructive, underpinning the currency’s recovery since early Q3.
Recent services and composite PMI data showed marginal growth in the euro area, despite slight contractions in France and Germany. Short-term technicals are bullish, with resistance around 1.1550 and a near-term range of 1.1500–1.1600, ahead of the 200-day moving average at 1.1630.
The currency’s momentum has shifted positively, breaking above the 50-day moving average at 1.1476. While fundamentals offer limited directional risk, the trend in spreads and sentiment remains supportive.