Polymarket odds show low probability for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026, raising uncertainty over U.S. crypto market rules.
Odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 have dropped to 23%, according to Polymarket data. The bill, aimed at clarifying crypto regulations, faces potential failure this year, leaving it in legislative limbo.
Analysts suggest the bill could still pass in September or during a December lame-duck session, possibly bundled into an omnibus package. If it fails, the industry may rely on a March joint interpretation by the SEC and CFTC, which classifies Bitcoin as a digital commodity but lacks legislative durability.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins indicated the agency is prepared to issue rules addressing crypto market concerns, though such measures could be challenged or reversed by future administrations.