TD Securities forecasts a narrower trade surplus due to weaker crude prices, offset partly by non-energy exports and rising imports.
Canada’s international merchandise trade surplus is expected to shrink to $2.5bn in June, down from $4.2bn in May, as lower oil prices weigh on energy exports. Markets had anticipated a $3.0bn surplus for the month.
The decline reflects a roughly 15% drop in crude oil prices during June, though early U.S. import data suggests a modest rebound in real energy exports after a 4% decline in May. Non-energy exports, including autos and manufacturing, are projected to rise 2.2%, providing partial support.
Stronger imports are also expected to contribute to the narrower surplus, with the real trade balance likely to see a smaller decline without the drag from commodity prices.