Deutsche Bank expects US July payrolls to rise by 65k, above June’s 57k, with unemployment steady at 4.2% and earnings growth unchanged.
Deutsche Bank strategists anticipate the US July employment report will show a 65k increase in payrolls, up from June’s 57k, signaling resilient labor market conditions. Private payrolls are also forecast to rise by 65k, improving from the prior 49k gain.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%, though risks lean toward a slight uptick to 4.3% if labor force participation rebounds. Average hourly earnings are projected to grow 0.3% month-on-month, matching June’s pace, while average hours worked remain at 34.3.
Markets are closely watching the data as the Fed’s policy trajectory remains tied to labor market strength. Futures pricing reflects expectations of further rate moves in 2026, with a steeper Treasury curve underscoring policy-driven dollar dynamics.