Options market data shows a shift to bearish bets on BTC, with $60,000 puts now leading after Fed-driven call unwinding.
Traders are increasingly hedging against a bitcoin decline, with $60,000 put options now dominating the market. The shift follows the unwinding of bullish call positions tied to last week’s Fed meeting, where bets on BTC reaching $70,000 or $72,000 failed to materialize.
Notional open interest for $70,000 calls dropped to $943 million, while $72,000 calls fell to $888 million, down from $2.5 billion each. The $10 billion expiry of BTC and ETH options on Friday accelerated the repositioning, reflecting caution ahead of August.
Historical data adds to the bearish tone: since 2013, a positive July for bitcoin has typically been followed by a median August return of -7.51%. This year, BTC rose 8.9% in July, aligning with the seasonal pattern.