Q2 GDP expanded 4.3% YoY, below the 4.5% consensus, as real estate woes and sluggish consumption weigh on recovery.
China’s economy grew 4.3% year-over-year in the second quarter, falling short of the 4.5% forecast as weak domestic demand and a deepening property crisis dragged on activity. Year-to-date growth reached 4.7%, below the 4.8% expected by economists, signaling a sharper slowdown than anticipated.
Retail sales and imports showed upside surprises, but analysts caution the rebound remains fragile. Property sector price declines continue to suppress consumer sentiment, undermining broader demand recovery. Markets had priced in a stronger post-pandemic bounce, but structural headwinds persist.
Policymakers are expected to introduce consumption subsidies and two 10-basis-point rate cuts from the People’s Bank of China this year. However, the shift toward a consumption-driven model is projected to cap long-term growth below historical levels.