Investors await Microsoft’s fiscal Q4 results, scrutinizing AI investment balance amid OpenAI concentration risks and Azure growth expectations.
Microsoft reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell, with analysts forecasting $4.24 adjusted earnings per share and $87.62 billion in revenue. Year-over-year growth is projected at 14.6%, accelerating to 15.4% in the September quarter.
The company’s shares have underperformed in 2026, declining 19% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 gained 8.5%. Concerns over generative AI disruption and OpenAI concentration risks—with 45% of Microsoft’s $625 billion in commercial remaining performance obligations tied to the partnership—have weighed on sentiment.
Analysts expect 40% Azure growth at constant currency, as CEO Satya Nadella navigates AI chip allocation between research and cloud clients. Investors will watch for signals on spending priorities and potential guidance adjustments.