Traders slash probability of a 14-day US-Iran ceasefire to 53% after President Trump threatens renewed military action.
Prediction markets cut the odds of a continuous 14-day US-Iran ceasefire by 10 percentage points to 53% on Monday. The shift follows skepticism over the durability of the truce, despite three days without strikes.
Prior to the announcement, Polymarket contracts had priced the likelihood above 60%. The ceasefire requires no US airstrikes or missile strikes on Iranian territory, a threshold traders now view as uncertain.
President Trump warned that military action could resume if diplomacy fails, while Iran denied direct negotiations. Markets reflect near-even odds of sustained peace.