A stronger-than-expected inflation print may pressure the RBA to maintain or tighten policy, lifting the AUD.
Australia’s June Consumer Price Index is forecast to show annual inflation steady at 4%, matching May’s reading, according to consensus. The monthly CPI is expected to rebound to 0.2% after a -0.7% drop in May, while the Trimmed Mean CPI, the RBA’s preferred gauge, is seen rising 3.7% year-over-year from 3.6% previously.
The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates at 4.35% in June, citing persistent inflation risks, including global oil supply disruptions. Policymakers noted inflation accelerated in late 2025, ahead of recent Middle East tensions, which have since eased but remain a concern for energy markets.
The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6950, with the USD supported by safe-haven demand. Markets will watch for deviations from forecasts, particularly in the Trimmed Mean CPI, to gauge RBA policy expectations.