Commerzbank lowers its year-end gold price target amid higher real yields and delayed Fed rate cuts.
Gold prices have fallen nearly 30% from January’s record high due to elevated real yields and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Commerzbank reduced its year-end forecast to USD 4,500 per troy ounce from USD 4,800, citing persistent monetary policy pressures.
The bank previously projected gold at USD 4,800 by year-end but now sees limited near-term upside. Analysts argue current Fed rate hike expectations are overdone, with rates likely unchanged through 2024 before potential cuts in mid-2027.
A recovery to USD 5,000 by end-2027 remains possible if the Fed holds rates steady and later eases policy. However, without a shift in rate expectations, ETF inflows and sustained price gains are unlikely.