Investors await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision tomorrow amid rising expectations of a 25 basis point hike.
Gold August futures opened at $4,083 per troy ounce on July 28, 2026, up 0.1% from Monday’s close, before slipping to $4,027 in early trading. Prices have remained below $4,100 since July 14, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting.
Expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike have climbed, with the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showing a 35.8% probability, up from 25.77% last week. The Fed’s decision will follow its meeting conclusion on July 29. Gold’s one-week performance is up 2%, while its one-year gain stands at 22.7%.
Oil prices fell nearly 5% over the past five days as U.S.-Iran tensions eased, with airstrikes paused to facilitate peace talks. The pause has reduced geopolitical risk premiums in commodity markets.