Scientists predict a severe El Niño event will disrupt global crop cycles and worsen supply constraints already strained by geopolitical tensions.
Commodity markets face heightened pressure as a “Super El Niño” climate pattern emerges, threatening extreme weather disruptions. Bank of America strategists warn the event could trigger severe droughts, floods, and heat waves, exacerbating tight supply conditions already impacted by Middle East conflicts and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Historical data shows only six of 20 recorded El Niño events over the past 75 years reached the severity expected this year. The Oceanic Niño Index, measuring sea surface temperatures, has already surpassed average readings for this period, signaling an unusually strong event. Past Super El Niños have severely disrupted agricultural production, raising concerns over crop yields and food prices.
The forecast adds to existing supply chain vulnerabilities, with markets already grappling with geopolitical risks. Analysts highlight the potential for further price volatility in soft commodities and energy as weather-related disruptions unfold.