The bank forecasts a near-doubling of South Korea’s current account surplus to 300 billion dollars this year amid AI-driven semiconductor demand.
Goldman Sachs expects the South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit to outperform peers in 2026, driven by artificial intelligence investment and semiconductor exports. The bank projects South Korea’s current account surplus will jump to roughly 300 billion dollars, or 13.9% of GDP, this year.
The divergence reflects a split between chip exporters and energy importers in Asia. While AI capital spending bolsters currencies like the won and Taiwan dollar, oil-dependent economies such as Thailand and Indonesia face weaker prospects. Taiwan’s current account surplus is forecast to reach 25% of GDP in 2026.
Reduced foreign equity outflows and strong semiconductor exports are seen supporting the won’s rally. For Taiwan, robust tech exports and US dollar deposits underpin the currency’s strength despite steady interest rates.