The bank warns structural forces like aging populations and fiscal dominance will keep borrowing costs elevated for years.
JPMorgan Chase has declared the end of the easy-money era, citing six structural shifts—including soaring global debt and demographic decline—that will sustain higher borrowing costs. The bank highlighted $100 trillion in global public debt and $251 trillion in total debt across governments, corporations, and households by 2025 as key drivers of this shift.
The note underscored fiscal dominance, where government spending overshadows monetary policy, alongside aging populations in advanced economies. Social Security’s trust fund faces depletion within eight years, risking automatic benefit cuts. These factors mark a reversal from the past 40 years of demographic tailwinds.
The bank’s analysis suggests de-population and de-globalization will further strain economic growth, reinforcing a long-term rise in rates. No immediate market reaction was specified in the report.