Survey respondents lifted 2026 core inflation expectations by 0.2 percentage points while trimming GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters showed core inflation expectations for 2026 rose to 2.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous survey. Headline inflation views remained steady at 2.7% for 2026 but were nudged up 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% for 2027. Longer-term inflation expectations held at 2.0% for 2031.
Real GDP growth forecasts were lowered to 0.6% for 2026 and further reduced for 2027, while 2028 projections stayed unchanged. Unemployment rate expectations edged higher for 2027 and 2028. Risks to inflation were seen as slightly tilted to the upside for 2026 but more balanced afterward.
The survey noted limited expected spillovers from the Middle East conflict, concentrated in 2026. Forecasters aligned more closely with the June 2026 Eurosystem staff projections on core inflation.