Quick Read – MSFT dropped 17% year to date but beat EPS four consecutive quarters, with AI revenue hitting a $37 billion annual run rate. – Microsoft turns the AI power bottleneck into a moat by funding nuclear and SMR projects, securing capacity rivals cannot source on demand….
The $627 billion contracted backlog, up 99% year over year, directly counters concerns about $31 billion quarterly capex and two-year chip obsolescence cycles. – I keep buying Microsoft because it is the only hyperscaler I trust to own both ends of the AI supply chain: the software everyone already pays for, and the electrons that will decide who actually gets to run the models. That combination is why my finger keeps hitting the buy button, and it is why the recent drawdown feels like a gift rather than a warning
Here is the setup. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is down 17.39% year to date and 21.39% over the past year, yet the business underneath it just posted its fourth consecutive EPS beat with $4.27 against a $4.07 estimate. Revenue climbed 18.3% year over year to $82.89 billion.
The market is punishing capex. I am accumulating. The Three Data Points That Keep Me Buying First, the demand signal.