Rabobank’s Florence Schmit notes TTF natural gas has risen above €60/MWh as Middle Eastern supply disruptions intensify.
The bank expects gas prices to remain elevated into the second half of 2026, limiting downside for power prices in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK as gas-fired generation becomes increasingly important again
Geopolitical supply risks keep TTF elevated “TTF benchmark gas futures have again surged more than 15% over just eight consecutive sessions as of July 23, driven by the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and its disruption to Middle Eastern energy supply routes.” “Qatar paused efforts to rapidly revive LNG production in early July, pushing TTF gas back above €50/MWh, before the latest uncertainties pushed prices beyond €60/MWh.” “With our current forecast for gas prices to remain high going into the second half of this year, the downside for power prices also looks limited.” “Once winter demand replaces summer demand, gas-fired generation will again be needed to meet load, particularly in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK, keeping power prices elevated and leaving markets exposed to renewed TTF upside.” Author